Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
